Forecasting is essential if we do not want to impact customers with fewer resources than necessary. (see the article on KPIs)
But before we start talking about how we calculate the Forecast, let's define some key concepts:
- Workload: The volume of contacts (incoming messages) is multiplied by the average handling time (AHT) of a call.
- Average time to service: The average time required for a contact, including waiting times and follow-up work.
- FTE: A staffing level equivalent to one person working full time. Typically, 1 FTE = 8 hours per day.
It is also good to clarify that forecasting can be very accurate(we reach a +-7 % error) if we have the raw data to work on: if we don't, we can also forecast but the process is different and will be explained in another post.
The purpose of the monthly forecast is to drive recruitment and staffing plans and to provide accurate information to the operations team on how the volume to be managed will be received so that the teams can be sized with the required number of full-time equivalents (FTE).
Forecasting should start with historical data collected by us (or by your previous contact centre) or by you (if you have had the operations in-house for a given period) over the past months or years.
Example
We want to make a forecast for the year 2022.
As we have data from 2019 to 2021 we can apply a simple growth factor to the sample dataset:
| Year | volume | Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth % Volume growth |
| 2019 | 50,000 | |
| 2020 | 52,000 | 4.0% |
| 2021 | 54,000 | 3.8% |
| 2022 (forecast) | 56.106 | 3,9% |
With this data, we can estimate a growth of 3.9% in 2022, if we follow the same trend we have had in recent years.
Converting an annual forecast into a monthly forecast
To quickly generate a monthly call volume forecast that provides high-level direction to your operations, you need the average volume per month.
Therefore,
1. let's say we take the 2020 volume, 52,000 events.
2. We calculate the average volume per month based on the row data provided.
3. We then add up all the averages for all the months to find the average annual volume. This would be 52,000 calls in the sample data above.
4. Based on the average annual volume and the average monthly volume, determine what percentage of the year's contacts occur each month, on average. This is done by dividing the average monthly volume by the average annual volume for each month.
5. For the 2021 forecast, simply multiply the percentage of each month by the total volume for the year.
We now have the forecast volume for 2022 per month.
Of course, we can now drill down and follow the same process to get the volume per day of the week and per hour of the day.
